Dow jumps 200 points, S&P 500 adds to record as investors bet on trade deals ahead: Live updates

Stocks rose early Monday as increasing trade hopes among investors position Wall Street to close out a stunning month with even more record highs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 209 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, building on the record highs set in the previous session. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.55%, also reaching fresh all-time highs.

Monday's advance follows Canada rescinding its digital service tax in an effort to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S. That's after President Donald Trump on Friday said the U.S. was “terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada.” Initial payments on the tax were set to begin Monday and would have applied to companies such as Google, Meta and Amazon.

Shares of Meta Platforms and Google-parent Alphabet each gained around 1%.

Monday marks the last day of June, a month in which the major averages have staged a sharp recovery back to record levels. The S&P 500 is up 4.7% this month, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has jumped 6.5%. The Dow, meanwhile, has added about 4% month to date.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs on Friday. At its low in April, the S&P 500 was down nearly 18% for the year when global trade and tariff tensions rocked the market.

“The bearish narratives — Middle East conflict, tariffs, soft economic data — keep getting invalidated by the price action,” said Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management. “Every chance the market has had to break down has failed. Instead, it continues to do what bull markets do best: climb the wall of worry. We think this run can continue, not without volatility to the downside of course.”

Investors will be keeping an eye on whether the Senate will be able to pass President Donald Trump's “one, big, beautiful” bill. If passed by the Senate, the package — which narrowly passed a key procedural vote in the Senate on Saturday night — faces an uncertain path in the House, where some GOP lawmakers have balked at revisions in the latest version of the bill.

Stocks open higher Monday

Stocks traded up on Monday morning.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4% just after the opening bell, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 207 points, or 0.5%.

Stocks making the biggest moves premarket

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:

• Moderna — Shares rose 2% after the biotech company's experimental flu vaccine showed a positive response in a late-stage trial, opening the way for the standalone shot and a combination Covid shot.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Juniper Networks — Shares rallied 14% and 8%, respectively, after the U.S. Department of Justice, according to court filings, settled its lawsuit challenging server maker Hewlett Packard Enterprise' $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks.
• Meta Platforms — Shares gained 2% after Bloomberg and The Information over the weekend reported, citing unnamed sources, that Meta has hired four artificial intelligence researchers from OpenAI to join its new Superintelligence group led by Alexandr Wang. Those hires are Jiahui Yu, Shuchao Bi, Shengjia Zhao and Hongyu Ren, the report said.

Read the full list here.

Chase customer spending growth is slowing, JPMorgan says

Spending growth by Chase customers is slowing down, according to JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane.

“Total spending growth decreased to ~2.0% as of June 20, below the May figure of ~2.3%. The June MTD growth rate has decelerated throughout the month as more data has become available,” Shane said in a note to clients.

Spending growth rises to 2.7% when excluding gas stations, driven by lower oil prices, Shane said, but is still below the 3.1% growth rate in the same metric from May.

Among Gen X and Baby Boomer Chase customers, spending is actually down year over year in June.

Moderna shares pop following latest late-stage trials results

Shares of Moderna rose more than 5% in the premarket on Monday after the biotechnology company announced positive late-stage trial results for its experimental mRNA-based flu vaccine, opening the door for approval of the vaccine and the advancement of the company's separate combination flu and Covid shot.

This comes as the stock has sizably lagged the broader market year to date, falling nearly 35% compared to the S&P 500's rise of about 5% in the same period.

Canada rescinds digital services tax

Canada announced it will not implement a digital services tax as it tries to restart trade negotiations with the U.S. following President Donald Trump's comments that trade discussions with the country were terminated.

“Today's announcement will support a resumption of negotiations toward the July 21, 2025, timeline set out at this month's G7 Leaders' Summit in Kananaskis,” Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in the statement.

Fed's Bostic says inflation outlook won't be clear by July

The U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to have enough clarity on the trajectory of the U.S. economy to justify an interest rate cut in July, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC's “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

“We're only going to have one more measure of inflation. We're going to have a lot that's unknown about how other policies are impacting the labor market. And without that kind of clarity, I don't think it's going to be my view that it'll be appropriate to move in any direction at this point,” Bostic said.

Tackling the issue of when the data might be sufficient to support a move, Bostic said the Fed would be closely monitoring how businesses and consumers respond to tariffs and other economic factors.

“I'm hearing more [businesses] say that they may not expect this whole thing to play out, to where they're at their final strategy, till even 2026, so this could be a much more extended period than I think many expect,” he told CNBC.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors parse a slew of data releases

Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 0.84% to end the day at 40,487.39 after hitting an over 11-month high earlier in the session, while the broader Topix index advanced 0.43% to 2,852.84.

In South Korea, the Kospi index closed 0.52% higher at 3,071.70, while the small-cap Kosdaq was flat at 781.50.

Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 increased by 0.33% to end the day at 8,542.30.

Meanwhile, India's benchmark Nifty 50 lost 0.53% while the BSE Sensex dropped 0.54% as at 1.45 p.m. Indian Standard Time.

More S&P 500 companies issuing positive Q2 earnings guidance compared to average

More companies in the S&P 500 are issuing positive earnings guidance for the second quarter than average, according to FactSet.

Over 110 companies in the broad-market index have given quarterly EPS guidance for the second quarter. Out of this lot, 51 companies have issued positive EPS guidance for the quarterly period, which is above the 5-year average of 42 and above the 10-year average of 39, according to FactSet's senior earnings analyst John Butters. 59 companies have issued negative guidance, meanwhile.

Earnings growth could be slowing down, however. Butters' analysis shows that the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in the second quarter or 5% could mark the lowest earnings growth for the index since the fourth quarter of 2023.

Stock futures rise on Sunday evening

Shortly after 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were each about 0.1% higher. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 163 points, or 0.4%.