Technical analysis: Spot gold will return to May's low of $3,120 in the third quarter.

In the Asian market, spot gold has seen slight gains, currently trading around 3,330 USD per ounce.

Based on its wave pattern, spot gold is expected to return to the May low of 3,120 USD per ounce in the third quarter.

The wave (3) that began at the October 2023 low of 1,810 USD has completed near the key resistance level of 3,469 USD (its 361.8% projection level), as evidenced by its failure to break above the April high of 3,500 USD, exhaustion near 3,469 USD, and its five-wave structure.

A death cross has formed on the weekly MACD indicator, and a bearish divergence has appeared on the RSI indicator. These signals indicate that the likelihood of gold breaking above $3,469 in the short term is very low.

The current correction consists of three minor waves. The unfolding c wave may enter the range of 3,010 USD to 3,123 USD, as indicated by the ascending channel.

The upward trend will remain intact, unaffected by the deep correction, which is currently in the (4) wave. The upward (5) wave will begin from the target area, driving the trend toward 3,469 USD.

The key support level is at 3,010 USD; a break below this level could open the path to 2,551 USD (at the bottom of wave 4). A break above 3,469 USD would lead to a price rise to the 3,644 USD to 3,819 USD range.

On the daily chart, retracement analysis shows support at $3,151, which held off the first wave of bearish pressure and triggered a strong rebound.

The rebound appears to have ended near the $3,436 resistance level, with the second wave potentially already underway. The strength of the c wave remains unclear.

A weaker C wave may end around 3,151 USD, near the bottom of the A wave, while a stronger C wave could extend well below that level.

Signals on the weekly chart indicate this wave could extend below 3,151 USD.

Spot gold is currently trading at 3,331.86 USD per ounce.