Global Broker Regulation Inquiry App

Broker Search

English

简体中文

繁體中文

English

Pусский

日本語

ภาษาไทย

Tiếng Việt

Bahasa Indonesia

Español

हिन्दी

Filippiiniläinen

Français

Deutsch

Português

Türkçe

한국어

العربية

您当前语言与浏览器默认语言不一致，是否切换？

切换

Main body -

WikiFX Express

MetaTrader Support Ending July 2025: Update Now or Risk Losing Access

SEP Lowers Economic Forecast: U.S. Economy Set for Soft Landing

Magic Compass | In a week

Abstract：The Fed kept rates unchanged in June, emphasizing tariffs as the key reason for sustained high interest rates.Dot plot narrows rate cut expectations for 2026 and 2027.SEP downgraded GDP and raised inf

The Fed kept rates unchanged in June, emphasizing tariffs as the key reason for sustained high interest rates.
Dot plot narrows rate cut expectations for 2026 and 2027.
SEP downgraded GDP and raised inflation projections for the second consecutive quarter.

The June FOMC meeting leaned slightly hawkish. Although the outcome fell short of expectations and the Fed made no mention of SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) policies, sources report that an SLR-related meeting is scheduled for June 25.

While the latest dot plot maintained projections for two rate cuts in 2024, expectations for rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 have been scaled back. This reflects the Feds cautious and steady stance on inflation, focusing less on actual rate ranges and more on communicating inflation sentiment. The dot plot itself holds limited forward guidance.

(Figure 1: FOMC Dot Plot; Source: FED)

In the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed lowered its GDP outlook for 2025–2026 while raising its projections for unemployment and core PCE inflation through 2027, signaling a path toward a soft landing.

(Figure 2: Fed SEP Outlook; Source: FED)

(Figure 2: Fed SEP Outlook; Source: FED)
According to BofAs Fund Manager Survey (FMS), confidence in a global “soft landing” surged to 66% in June—its highest level since October 2024—up from 37% in April. Expectations for a “hard landing” dropped sharply to 13% (from 49%), while “no landing” forecasts rose to 16% (from 3%).

(Figure 3: 66% of Fund Managers See Higher Soft Landing Probability; Source: BofA)

In my view, weaker economic expectations may actually reduce downside pressure on risk assets in Q3. Golds crowded trade positioning is also likely to unwind. Given the constraints of a high-rate environment, gold's upward momentum is expected to be limited.

(Figure 4: Gold in a Crowded Trade for Three Consecutive Months; Source: BofA)

(Figure 4: Gold in a Crowded Trade for Three Consecutive Months; Source: BofA)

The Fed remains cautious in assessing the inflationary impact of tariffs. Until a final decision on tariffs is made, keeping the yield curve at elevated levels is a logical strategy. Although the market believes tariffs won't affect inflation in the short term, the Fed is focusing more on managing long-term inflation expectations.

(Figure 5: Fund Managers Expect Tariffs to Range Between 10%–15%; Source: BofA)

Conclusion:

Following the FOMC meeting, fears of a U.S. recession have mostly faded. With a soft landing now the market consensus, future economic growth estimates are likely to be revised upward. If inflation data continues to surprise to the downside, risk appetite could rise further. Simply put, the later a FOMO rally begins, the lower the market risk.

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold continues to trade in a sideways and choppy pattern, forming lower highs and lower lows. Investors should maintain a bearish trading strategy. Weve revised our Fibonacci target lower to the 3313 level. Short-term trading may benefit from selling into spikes; if new lows are breached, consider exiting to capture price differentials.

Support levels: 3366 / 3342 / 3313

Resistance levels: 3384 / 3398

Risk Disclaimer:

The views, analysis, research, prices, or other information presented above are for general market commentary only and do not represent the position of this platform. All visitors should assess risk independently and operate with caution.

Disclaimer:

The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.